West Africa is rounding up 2024 with one of the biggest news out of Senegal, which captures the spirit that has defined political reforms in the sub region. The government announced that it is evicting French military personnel from its territory on the 80th anniversary of a massacre on Senegalese soldiers committed by French forces, joining a number of other West African Francophone states and effectively indicating its exit from the “Francafrique” framework.
This is coming after a major debate has raged across the West African sub region over the need for a push back from the continent against Western hegemonic control over former colonies and the growing call for African States to reassert their sovereignty and build their states by developing indigenous solutions to social and economic challenges.
As the socio-political situations evolve in these countries, the impact of external factors, such as foreign investment and diplomatic relations, cannot be understated. Reforms in mining laws in the three Alliance of Sahel States (AES) members, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, mark a major transition in their approach to foreign investment and indicate a strengthening of state participation in mining projects and maximising economic benefits for the countries.
2024 saw the French military also exit Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. It has also started moving its forces out of Tchad, due to a similar request by the authorities, and this marks a major shift in French military and political influence in West Africa. However, a debate has raged on over the possibility of France gaining a military foothold In the region’s biggest economy, Nigeria, following accusations by the Nigerièn military leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, that agreements had been reached between Nigeria and France for a military base. Nigeria has strongly denied this and there has been no visual evidence of such a base.
This struggle appears to have been the defining theme in West Africa in 2024. The year is closing on a sombre note, no doubt, as the three Sahelian members of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have set a definite date, January 29, 2025, to pull out of the Union and create a confederation of states under the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). There are mixed feelings about the move, as many mourn the break from an institution that had defined the very essence of the sub region for almost half a century.
At a summit of its Authority of Heads of State and Government, ECOWAS proposed an extension of six months to give enough time for a reconsideration, which was swiftly rejected by the three leaders of the AES Confederation.
Recent events reveal heightened attempts by the AES states to strengthen their alliance as the prime ministers of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger met in Niamey, Niger’s capital, on December 31 to discuss the confederation road map, working behind closed doors on reforms and strategies to strengthen cooperation between their nations. Observers say this is a crucial meeting for the future of the region.
In spite of the rejection of appeals to remain, the last days of the month have seen extensive efforts by mediators appointed by the organisation pleading for a rethink, led by the Senegalese president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, and his Togolese counterpart, Faure Gnassingbe.
Against the backdrop of historical relations and shared interests, the Sierra Leonean president, leveraging on his country’s appointment as a temporary member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) made a trip to Burkina Faso in August, describing it as a pivotal opportunity to not only strengthen bilateral relations but also to chart a course for sustainable growth and open channels for discussions on rebuilding the eroding spirit of collaboration in the West African region.
The long drawn-out insurgencies across the Sahel, infiltrating the northern borders of some littoral states, such as Nigeria, continued to engender a precarious political situation in 2024. These conflicts triggered a chain of events that saw the overthrow of democratic governments in the Sahel states, just as they have remained the main obstacle to local economic growth and political stability in states like Nigeria.
Even as the military regimes in the Sahel states battled to eradicate a menace that had threatened the very existence of their sovereignty, they continued to face both international condemnation and domestic unrest over the global implications of their political preferences.
Brukinabeé military authorities battled several alleged plots against the state, claiming to have foiled a major plot against its leadership in September, which left a long trail that touched all former officials who served under the toppled military regime of Lieutenant-Colonel (Lt. Col.) Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, himself included.
The replacement of Western military by Russian forces in these states sparked a major geo-political race that saw the Ghanaian outgoing president, Nana Akufo-Addo , once publicly voice fears about the implications for regional stability.
A diplomatic feud also emerged from the growing threat posed by insurgent activities as the emergence of a new extremist group, known as “Lakurawa”, in Nigeria triggered accusations by the Nigerièn Head of State, General Tchiani, of attempts by the Nigerian and French governments at destabilising the Sahel state.
2024 was also a lost opportunity for Mali’s political parties and politicians as the country missed another transition deadline. The military junta even sacked its popular and unflinching ally and defender, Choguel Maïga, for finally expressing reservations about the genuineness of the junta’s political transition plan. The Malian military government’s promises of a swift return to civilian rule had seen an upsurge in political activities, which quickly subsided, stirring tension between military leaders and pro-democracy groups in the country.
The elections in some countries also introduced a radical shift in political leaning. Senegal is a prime example of a reawakening of anti-establishment politics that has gained popular support across the Sahel as well, and appears to have also garnered support in some established Conservative strongholds in the region.
The ruling party, Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity (PASTEF), facing stiff opposition to its reform proposals by a parliament controlled by the opposition Benno Bokk Yakkar, called for parliamentary elections, which eventually confirmed the popularity of it’s reform proposals as it swept majority of the seats, clearing the path for major reforms.
In Ghana, the shift in ideology may not have been as radical, but it highlighted the loss of popular support for a government that had been blamed for the country’s collapsing economy. Ghana’s new leadership has promised major shift from the policies of its predecessor once it takes office in January 2025. It has also hinted that it intends to soft pedal on its predecessor’s stance against the military regimes in the Sahel.
In Nigeria, growing discontent with the Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC) government saw the breakout of nationwide protests in which thousands of Nigerians came out to denounce the government’s failure to curb soaring cost of living and rising fuel price. The Nigerian government was able to record some significant achievements that they say would set the stage for greater economic revival in 2025, such as the rehabilitation of its long dormant refineries in the southern cities of Port Harcourt and Warri.
Liberia presents a different picture in the wider context of political rivalry. The blaze that brought down the country’s legislative building came amidst claims of manoeuvres by the main opposition Congress for Democratic Change (CDC) against several of the ruling Unity Party (UP) government’s policies and actions considered a direct affront to the CDC’s political relevance.
Political observers in the country say the growing dissent by CDC members has been triggered by the pressure on former CDC government officials following President Boakai’s anti-corruption probe, which has seen several arrests of former officials in the Weah-l3d CDC government.
On the break-up of the ECOWAS, political observers are hoping the appeals by member-states of ECOWAS would add to the pressure on the regimes in the Sahel states to rethink their exit from the regional body.
The organisation’s response to political instability had become one of the main contentions in 2024. While it evolved into a more uncompromising platform for the promotion of democratic values, taking even tougher stance against unconstitutional change of political leadership, many observed that this new approach had ignored the principles of self-determination of states, enshrined in its charter.
It was also observed that the organisation’s strict sanctions and threats of military interventions against the military regimes had greatly compromised its ability to mediate conflicts and address the dire political realities within its fold.
As the region crosses over to 2025, West Africa continues to witness dynamic political developments that could significantly alter its socio-political landscape. With elections, coups, and regional cooperation at the forefront, analysts are closely monitoring these events to assess their implications both within the region and beyond.
In summary, 2024 was a pivotal year for West Africa, with elections, coup attempts and dialogues on regional cooperation shaping the political narrative. Analysts will need to engage with these developments critically, acknowledging that the complexities of governance, international relations, and civil society dynamics all play crucial roles in determining the future trajectory of the region. Understanding these interconnections will be essential for any comprehensive analysis of West Africa’s political landscape in the coming months.
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