Abdullahi Ganduje, former APC chairman (L), President Bola Tinubu (C), and Rabiu Kwankwaso, opposition NNPP leader (R).
Nigeria’s political landscape has been rattled by the sudden resignation of the ruling All Progressives Congress’s (APC) national chairman, Abdullahi Umar Ganduje. The former chairman said he stepped down because of health concerns, but most observers say it was the result of internal party politics and it may have serious consequences for the party as it prepares for the next general elections in 2027. He has been replaced by the national vice chairman of the party, Ali Bukar Dalori, who will remain acting until the party’s national convention in December.
Recent reports offer multiple reasons for Ganduje’s resignation. Some frame it as a “unifying gesture” aimed at stabilising the APC ahead of the 2027 elections, addressing zoning concerns, and preparing for a leadership handover. This narrative suggests a calculated move to ensure party cohesion and electoral success.
Others suggest that he stepped down because of the need for a political balancing act that would see his rival, a former governor and strong opposition figure, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, defect to the ruling party, a move many say the country’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has been working to achieve for some time.
There even predictions of a possible vice presidential slot for Kwankwaso in 2027. This, however, would require the endorsement of top northern political figures in the APC, especially the governors who have been loyal to the party and the president since its inception, and it is unlikely that they will allow Tinubu make Kwankwaso his vice president when some of them may nurse such ambition.
The general consensus for now is that Ganduje stepped down as a result of demands from several interests within the party, and these interests may include party members from Nigeria’s North-Central region, where his predecessor, Abdullahi Adamu, comes from. They see the return of the position to their region as imperative.
Political appointments in Nigeria, including official party positions, are determined by regional, or zonal, balance, and this has to be a factor in the search for a new chairman. Many within the party say this was ignored when Ganduje was chosen from the North West, as the North Central felt it had been unceremoniously dropped. Ganduje took over as party leader after Adamu’s sudden exit in August 2023, leaving the North-Central out of the leadership equation, and the repercussions of that exit has cast its shadow over the party since then.
The final decision on who assumes leadership in December would be a major step in appeasing a large faction within the party, which would bring some stability ahead of the general elections.
The underlying political machinations in the Ganduje affair are hard to ignore. According to several analyses, his departure was anticipated by some within political circles who believe it was possibly due to the regional dynamics, especially the voting power that Nigeria’s most populous northern state, Kano, has, with its electoral significance in 2027.
With both Ganduje and Kwankwaso coming from Kano, their personal and political rivalries are assessed based on a strategic realignment of the party in its search for electoral victory. There are growing whispers about what this means for party cohesion and leadership, with the idea of easing Ganduje out to replace him with a younger leader, a major step by the party to reorganise internal power structures.
At the heart of the whole tussle is the president, whose long-standing political friendships and ambition appear to be guiding the party’s path, ensuring that it is primed for the 2027 elections. This is not just about parties and policies, but about proving he can still assert his control over the party’s direction
There is also dissent among Ganduje’s supporters. Their discontent is not just about politics, but about trust, loyalty, and the fear of being left behind. Without a doubt, many say, Ganduje has delivered as the APC national chairman, overseeing the party’s successes in capturing some states from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). His supporters have expressed their anger about this seeming disregard for his successful management of the party. However, many say his achievements are the least consideration in the preparations for the next presidential elections. .
The belief is that Kwankwaso currently has more political weight in Kano state. His defection to the APC could also see him move with the state governor, Abba Kabir Yusuf, and this means a major boost in the chances of the party to win the state in upcoming elections, although not a guarantee. Political commentators say Ganduje understands the situation. His resignation tells the real story of Nigerian politics, where every move matters. This is not just about who sits in which chair. It is about people’s hopes, the struggle for influence, and the desire to win the next election at all costs
The demands by the North-Central risks alienating other regions, particularly the North West, where Ganduje hails from. The Kwankwaso factor also raises its own issues. Bringing him into the party is a serious gamble, but the prize might be worth it.
Kano’s voters could make or break any election, and his loyal followers could give the APC a powerful boost. But there is danger too. The bitter history between Kwankwaso and Ganduje is not just political, it is personal. Kwakwaso’s return to the APC could reignite a rivalry that many hoped was over.
In Nigeria, national politics often rely on state-level dynamics. Votes from Kano will help decide the next elections, that is why everyone is fighting so hard for the state’s support.
Tinubu’s gamble could also tear the party apart. Ganduje’s sudden exit, just before a major party convention, looks like a deliberate move to reorganise the APC. For many, Tinubu is taking control, but sources within the party say the president’s power play could cause a split in a party already struggling to hold its members together.
Bringing Kwankwaso in could change the party’s fortunes in the north, especially in Kano, as his popularity could deliver votes that the party desperately needs, It also comes with new challenges as well. The action may benefit Tinubu or create more problems. It could make his hold on the party stronger and unify it or it could alienate important allies and stir up internal feuds.
As Ganduje leaves, some party members anticipate improved fortunes for the party in Kano and see steps towards reconciliation. They ignore the shifting political loyalties and the fierce struggle for power. This could backfire or it may pave the way for another four years in office.
