Transition Ahead: ECOWAS Adjusts to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger’s Planned Exit in January 2025

At the 66th Ordinary Session of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on December 16, in Abuja, the Nigerian capital, intense deliberations by leaders of ECOWAS member-states centred around the announcement by the three military ruled Sahel states, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger Republic, of their formal withdrawal from the regional body on January 29, 2025.

The organisation, while acknowledging the position of the three Sahel states, has asked for an extended period of six months to exhaust all efforts at retaining the membership of the three states.

The authority of Heads of States of ECOWAS set Jan. 29, 2025, to July 29, 2025, as a transitional period to keep ECOWAS doors open to the three states.

President of the ECOWAS Commission, Dr Omar Touray, said this while reading the Communique at the end of the summit. He stated that the authority had taken note of the notification by the three countries of their decision to withdraw from ECOWAS, acknowledging that in accordance with the provisions of Article 91 of the revised ECOWAS treaty, the three countries would officially cease to be members of ECOWAS from Jan. 29, 2025.

“The Authority directs the Council of Ministers to convene an extraordinary session during the second quarter of 2025 to consider and adopt both separation modalities and the contingency plan covering political and economic relations between ECOWAS and the Republic of Niger, the Republic of Mali and Burkina Faso,” said Touray.

Since the initial decision by the trio to pull out of ECOWAS, the organisation has intensified efforts to keep them within its fold, holding several high-level meetings with the military leaders as well as seeking the help of other top diplomats and former heads of state to pull diplomatic strings in ensuring that the almost 50-year Union remains.

In its most recent efforts, the organisation mandated the newly elected president of Senegal, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, whose Pan-Africanist position appears in alignment with those espoused by the military juntas, and the Togolese president, Faure Gnassingbe, to lead mediation efforts to restore membership of the states.

At the Abuja summit, ECOWAS, expressing its appreciation of the efforts already accomplished, renewed its confidence in Faye and Gnassingbe. It reaffirmed their leading roles in a new mediation mission aimed at finding lasting solutions to the crises affecting the Sahel states while promoting their reintegration within the regional organisation.

The final communique stated that “the authority extends the mandate of President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo, and President Faye of Senegal to continue their mediation rule up to the end of the transition period to bring the three member countries back to ECOWAS.

However, the Authority, deferring to the sovereign rights of the states, directed the President of the Commission “to launch withdrawal formalities after the deadline of Jan. 29, 2025, and to draw up a contingency plan covering various areas.”

In spite of their decisions to leave the regional union, the three states have announced that they would continue to allow free movement of all West African citizens and the right of establishment, when they formally withdraw from the block at the end of next month.

General Assimi Goïta, head of the Malian junta and president of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), announced that the AES will remain “a visa-free area for nationals of ECOWAS member states”. However, he added, “the AES countries reserve the right to refuse entry to any national of the ECOWAS deemed an “inadmissible immigrant.”

However, some political observers who followed the summit say, while the three states have offered an open door for all ECOWAS citizens, the organisation threatens to close its doors, adopting a posture much firmer, even punitive, towards the trio.

The ECOWAS made it clear that in the event of the departure of the AES countries, there would be no ECOWAS à la carte. In other words, ECOWAS refuses any reciprocity regarding the free movement of goods and people with countries that choose to leave the organisation. Political pundits within the AES say this stance is perceived as confrontational by citizens and governments of the Sahel States.

This hard-line approach to the AES appears inspired by the hawkish position of the Nigerian leadership. For many regional political watchers, Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, had played a poor diplomatic hand by backing the imposition of extreme sanctions, which were against diplomatic norms and contractual terms of the regional organisation.

A recent visit by the German president, Frank-Walter, to Nigeria provided another platform for Tinubu to voice same hard-line stance, insisting that ECOWAS would allow free trade and free movement of people to continue with AES after 2025, but would not tolerate undemocratic Government, throwing a direct jab at the military leadership of the three states.

The military juntas have expressed their resolve to create their own political paths, regardless of the opinions of external forces, warning that attempts at Blocking free trade will hurt the regional bloc more than it will hurt the AES.