President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaru Sisocco Embaló.
The emerging political crisis in Guinea-Bissau, triggered by the president, Umaru Sissoco Embaló’s decision to remain in power after the expiration of his constitutional mandate, has provoked strong opposition both within and outside the country.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS) recently ended their mission in search of a solution and to fix a date for presidential elections after Embaló ordered the expulsion of the delegation from the country.
In a statement on March 2, ECOWAS said its team, together with the UNOWAS team, had met Embaló, other politicians and civil society groups to try to reach a consensus on when the elections should be held. It said it had “prepared a draft agreement on a roadmap for elections in 2025 and had started presenting it to the stakeholders for their consent”.
The West African regional bloc deployed the mission between February 21 and 28, but the team left on March 1 after Embaló’s threats, highlighting ongoing political instability in Guinea-Bissau.
Embaló’s shifting stance contradicts his advocacy for strict adherence to democratic principle while he was ECOWAS Chairperson between 2022 and 2023, and highlights his past as a military officer and prime minister, amid accusations of political manoeuvring.
Embaló postponed the country’s presidential election, which were scheduled for December 2024, to November 2025, citing logistical and financial challenges. The opposition insist his term has expired, though a Supreme Court ruling extended it to September 2025.
His postponing the 2024 presidential elections, commentators in the country say, follows a pattern of jettisoning established institutional processes in a scheme to create alternative mechanisms that prolong his time in power and enable his expansive interpretation of executive authority.
The current political debacle builds on a long pattern of instability in a country that has experienced four coups and more than a dozen attempted coups while enduring 23 years of direct or military government since independence from Portugal in 1973.
A former brigadier general in the national army, Embaló ran as the head of the Movimento para Alternância Democrática, Grupo dos 15 (Madem G15)—a breakaway party from PAIGC—during the 2019 presidential elections. He claimed 53.5 percent of the vote against his closest rival, former prime minister Domingos Simoēs Pereira’s 46.5 percent in disputed results.
In January, the Inclusive Patriotic Alliance (API-Cabas Garandi) insisted that as of February 27, 2025, Embaló would no longer be considered the legitimate President of the country and will be treated as the “former President of the Republic, due to vacancy of the post”. The API-CG and the Inclusive Alliance Plataforma Aliança Inclusiva–Terra Ranka (PAI-TR) also recently accused Embaló of having an “authoritarian, arrogant and disrespectful behavior towards the High-Level Mission of ECOWAS/UNOWAS”.
According to the two coalitions, the president’s behaviour only confirms his “desperation” in view of the end of his mandate, on February 27, and his “sick obsession with seizing power through antidemocratic means”.
“By refusing to schedule presidential and legislative elections in 2024, after all legal deadlines have elapsed, and by rejecting an inclusive dialogue that could lead to the return of constitutional normalcy in Guinea-Bissau, Embaló is dangerously leading the country towards political and social chaos, with unpredictable consequences for peace and stability,” the two coalitions warned.
They welcomed the implementation of the ECOWAS/UNOWAS Mission and the efforts made to meet with interested parties, namely the Permanent Commission of the National People’s Assembly (Portuguese: Assembleia Nacional Popular, ANP), the Parties and Coalitions and Civil Society Organisations,
The opposition coalitions strongly condemned the president’s “irresponsible and shameful attitude” towards the Mission, insisting that, “from now on, the only legitimate sovereign body is the ANP, through its Standing Committee.”
The two Coalitions reiterated their firm commitment to continue political dialogue with all forces in the Nation in the search for consensual solutions to the current political crisis, warning that they will not engage in any dialogue process promoted by the outgoing President, other than within the framework of ECOWAS/UNOWAS mediation.
In a statement, the opposition Frente Popular (FP) backed calls that Embaló’s presidential term ended on February 27, insisting that the country is in a period of presidential interim, in light of the Constitution of the Republic.
At the heart of country’s governance debate are competing perspectives of the role of the executive in the semi-presidential system. Under this arrangement, the president serves as the head of state and the prime minister, selected by parliament, is the head of government—choosing ministers and setting the day-to-day agenda.
This system was adopted in the 1993 Constitution to strengthen the separation of powers between the executive, parliament, and judiciary. It was also a response to the 19-year rule of President João Bernardo Vieira, who concentrated authority within the executive, facilitating abuses of power and impunity.
Pereira, who is the President of the National Assembly, and his PAI-TR—partnering with the liberation party stalwart, Partido Africano da Independência da Guiné e Cabo Verde (PAIGC)—put forward constitutional reforms in the June 2023 legislative elections to clarify the powers between the president and prime minister and limit conflicts over official duties between the two roles.
Embaló, who emerged from the traditional, state-focused presidential framework with strong ties to the military, was instead hoping to secure a parliamentary majority to push through his vision for absolutist presidential power in a new constitution.
The electoral victory of PAI-TR, with a 54-48 majority in Parliament, and the support of another 12 members of parliament (MP) from aligned parties, effectively limited Embaló’s expansive view of the presidential authority.
He responded to this parliamentary setback by creating a shadow cabinet of “presidential advisors,” comprised of former ministers and security officials with close ties to the military and police, paralysing government function.
He has also attempted to side-line legislative authority by dissolving Parliament twice, including in December 2023, and alleging coup attempts, dismissing the parliamentary-selected prime minister, Geraldo Martins. The opposition has been blocked from organising rallies.
While Parliament officially resumed in September 2024, MPs have been prevented from entering the National Assembly, effectively keeping it shuttered—an outcome Pereira has called a constitutional coup.
ECOWAS’s role in the current debacle is reinforced by its commitment to democratic governance in the region, faced with the growing threat to constitutional governance.
The regional body revised its treaty in Cotonou in July 1993, recognising the need for broader integration and addressing political instability. This revised treaty expanded its mandate to include political, social, and security cooperation, shifting from a purely economic focus to a “ECOWAS of the People” vision.
In 2001, ECOWAS adopted its Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance to prevent and resolve conflicts, promote democratic elections, and sanction unconstitutional changes in government, such as coups. This solidified its role in maintaining regional stability.
ECOWAS has been criticised for perceived inconsistencies in applying sanctions, slow responses to crises, and dominance by larger economies like Nigeria, leading to tensions with smaller or militarily ruled states.
The organisation has faced challenges enforcing its democratic governance protocols, with coups and electoral disputes in member states.
Despite its long legacy of political instability, Guinea-Bissau has a track record of relatively competitive elections and alternations of power. Political observers say this owes, in part, to the professional composition of the National Electoral Commission (NEC), comprised of magistrates nominated from the Superior Council of the Judiciary and elected by two-thirds of Parliament for a 4-year term.
Guinea-Bissau’s resilient civil society has also been a glue that has helped the country weather many political storms. They are expected to lead demands for reas the country confronts its latest challenge.
