Senegal and Chad reduce French connections, indicate end to military presence, as Nigeria enhances alliance amidst growing concerns

If the reports are anything to go by, Senegalese president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s statements about his country’s willingness to shut down French military bases in the country suggests he is beginning to implement policies that align with his campaign promises, finally delivering on some of the core revolutionary initiatives he and the PASTEF party had promised.

Recently, the Chadian government also announced that it was expelling French forces from its territory.

Amidst these developments, there are concerns that France may be drawing up plans to open a new frontier in Nigeria, with the increased interactions between French president, Emmanuel Macron, and his Nigerian counterpart, Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The Chadian decision followed reports by Chadian intelligence services, as claimed by the group, Anonymous Alpha, that they established the presence of French mercenaries within the terrorist group Boko Haram fighters who killed 40 Chadian soldiers, and this was a part of the reason Chad decided to end its military cooperation with France.

The Chadian government has not confirmed or denied this report. However, such claims of French support for insurgency in the Sahel has been made a number of times before by leaders of the other Sahel states. In September, at the 79^th General Assembly of the United Nations (UNGA), the Nigerièn Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bakary Yaou Sangaré, accused France and its Western allies of funding and supporting terrorist groups in the Sahel region.

During his speech at the UNGA, he said “This is the place to denounce the new strategy of recolonisation assumed by France which informs, trains, finances and arms terrorist groups in the Sahel,” arguing that the destabilisation of the region by terror groups was being funded by Western powers, including France, in their desperation for the wealth of resources in the Sahel region.

The decision by Chadian authorities is a major blow for French diplomacy as the Chad was the last Sahelian country to host French forces. France had stationed about 1,000 military personnel in the capital, N’Djamena, Abéché in the east and Faya in the north. In April, Chad’s air force chief ordered about 100 US troops at the Adji Kossei Air Base near N’Djamena to cease operations.

In an interview with Le Monde this Thursday, Faye said that the French military presence in Senegal “does not correspond to our concept of sovereignty and independence.”

In the interview, Faye questioned the presence of 350 French soldiers in his country, believing that “this does not correspond to our concept of sovereignty and independence.”

“Why would there be a need for French soldiers in Senegal? What country can have foreign soldiers on its soil and claim its independence?” He asked.

Faye noted that “We have cooperation with the United States, China and Turkey without these countries having a base on our soil… Is France capable of doing this? It is not because the French have been here since the period of slavery that it is impossible to do otherwise.”

Faye’s remarks, many commentators say, reflect a newfound confidence in pushing through radical policies that had been stalled by the former opposition-controlled parliament, which they believe had been the reason for his government’s snail-paced approach to reforms promised during the presidential campaign.

Senegalese political commentators say the timing of Faye’s remarks, just before the 80th anniversary of the Thiaroye massacre—where French forces killed Senegalese soldiers, looks like France’s colonial playbook has officially expired.

Tinubu’s regular visits to France have raised concerns across the sub region, with many questioning the basis for such chummy relations between both leaders. There are speculations that both countries may be working towards closer security cooperation as France seems to have lost its traditional partners in the region.

However, many security and political experts say it would be a tough one to pull by the Nigerian president as he would face stiff opposition to such a move from within, especially the northern region, which has strong historical ties to Niger, its northern neighbour. There are many northern political leaders who would not want to provoke what could trigger regional hostilities.

For now, relations between both countries appear focused on economic ties. As one Nigerian online news platform puts it, “Nigeria holds a promise the French find difficult to resist. With 400 million people, the African giant will be the third most populous country in the world in less than 30 years, after India and China; and most of them would be young people under 30.”

This is true, but the pull towards security cooperation appears a natural fallout from such a strategic partnership, if it can be sold to the Nigerian public, a tough task indeed.

With the new call by Faye, Senegal appears to be following the path of the leaders of the three Sahel States, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who have expelled French forces from their territory, insisting that Paris has used its military presence in the region to surreptitiously aid insurgency and destabilise the governments in the region.

These developments are being celebrated by many as a new direction for these states away from the military control that France had established for decades. However, there are sceptics who say these decisions by some leaders, particularly Déby, may simply be political opportunism.

Without denying the progress that this represents, as one political commentator says, there are doubts about the full intentions of Déby who came to power thanks to France, and his regime has always been supported and financed by France.

With Senegal, there is no deadline for French exit, and it is expected that, even if the French soldiers will leave Senegal without setting a deadline “for the moment”, it would be a long-drawn-out process. This possibility is gleaned from Faye’s affirmation that relations with France “remain at an excellent level.”

Tchad has also not set a deadline for the withdrawal. Chadian Foreign Minister Abderaman Koulamallah said in the statement released that in ‘accordance with the provisions of the agreement, [Chad] undertakes to respect the terms laid down for its termination, including the notice period,” meaning the timeframe for a French troop departure was unclear as at press time.