Senegal’s National Assembly
Considering the challenges that could stall their efforts at making radical reforms due to an absence of a majority in the country’s parliament, Senegal’s president, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, and Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko are considering the creation of a presidential majority to strengthen their political base and push their reforms through parliament, reports from Senegal say.
The possibility of such a coalition to secure majority support in parliament has been predicted by several political analysts both within and outside the country.
Fitch Solutions, a leading provider of country insights, data and analytics, says this lack of majority poses some risks to policy-making, though key legislation will most likely still be passed.
According to Cheikh Gueye, coordinator of Senegalese think Tank Network, the reforms envisaged by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye seem to depend largely on negotiations between the different political forces to form a coherent majority.
According to him, we may be witnessing the beginnings of the establishment of such a presidential majority, given that the coalition led by Faye won the last elections.
Although this coalition already has a significant electoral base, the absence of a majority in the National Assembly represents the next challenge. The lack of a parliamentary majority, some say, for the time being will hinder passing of Faye’s most radical promises, namely dropping the use of the CFA franc (instead opting for the more workable option of reforming the monetary union) and renegotiating the contract terms with oil and gas companies, as most oil wells will imminently begin production.
The first test is likely to emerge with the three bills the government is expected to propose to the National Assembly in the coming days.
The first project concerns the increase in the powers of the Prime Minister. The two other legislative proposals aim to abolish two bodies: the Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE) and the High Council of Territorial Communities (HCCT).
Removal of HCCT, in particular, presents notable challenges. Informed sources say that since the HCCT was created following a constitutional referendum on March 20, 2016, which also expanded the powers of the National Assembly, its dissolution would require the approval of three-fifths of the deputies, or a minimum of 110 votes in favour.
This task promises to be difficult for the Sonko-led Yewwi Askan Wi coalition, which currently only has 56 seats in the Assembly, following the legislative elections in July 2022.
For the bills to pass, the coalition would need the support of other parliamentary groups, in particular those of former presidents, Wade’s Parti Democratique sénégalais (PDS) and Macky Sall’s Benno Bokk Yakaar coalition.
However, the position of the Yakaar, now in opposition, remains an uncertain variable. Whether or not they will facilitate the passage of these bills is uncertain, some political observers say.
Gueye says he envisages two scenarios; on the one hand, a negotiation of reforms supported by a large part of the National Assembly, thus avoiding its dissolution. On the other hand, the dissolution of the Assembly for new elections, with the objective of building a majority reflecting the result of the presidential election.
Many analysts have emphasised the importance of negotiated and shared governance to maintain political stability. However, the government’s ability to push through its reforms will depend on its ability to obtain sufficient support in the National Assembly.
The National Assembly’s position could be by various factors, the most compelling is the fact that majority public support is for the new government’s reforms.
