Russia’s strategic presence in the Sahel creates a new geopolitical paradigm

Nigeriens raise the Russian flag in a show of solidarity.

Nigerièns raise the Russian flag in a show of solidarity

Weeks after Niger Republic’s military junta ended a U.S. military deal and demanded the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country, Russian troops arrived the capital, Niamey, with a large supply of defence weapons.

Nigerièn Officials said the Russians were there at the invitation of Niger’s new government, following expulsion of French and American forces from the country after years of draining its resources, military sources say.

According to the officials, as part of strengthening its defence and security capabilities, and under the military cooperation agreement with the Russian Federation, Niger had acquired the latest generation anti-aircraft system from Russia.

The equipment arrived in Niamey accompanied by around a hundred Russian military instructors. The Nigerièn authorities say the instructors’ mission will be to install the system and ensure training of the Niger Armed Forces in its optimal use.

This strategic acquisition, military experts say, demonstrates the firm desire of the highest authorities to raise the country’s defensive capabilities to a dissuasive level, in a regional context marked by the resurgence of asymmetric security threats. It also participates in strengthening the military and technical partnership with Russia, Niger’s historic ally on issues of peace and stability.

Niger became the third country after Burkina Faso and Mali in which the Russian forces began operations.

Russia’s re-emergence in the Sahel recalls its strong ties with some states in the region in the 1980s under the banner of the Soviet Union (USSR) through diplomatic representation, military assistance and cultural cooperation.

Three decades after, signs of its return are visible, with the hammer and sickle giving way to the tricolour white, blue and red of the new Russian flag adorned on walls and waved by supporters with pro-Russian chants and graffiti in the streets across urban centres.

This increasing presence in the Sahel has raised concerns among former western allies who see their presence as a major shift in geopolitical balance in West Africa. As one source put it; “the Russians seem to be filling the spaces formerly occupied by western powers, particularly France. The fear is that it will take over strategic resources and influence politics, and this really worries western powers.

With increased tensions between the military regimes in the Sahel and their former western allies, such strategic alliances with the Russians represent a buffer against biting sanctions and possible military interventions by these former allies.

With these developments, the Alliance of Sahelian States (AES) appear to be revising military cooperation agreements with Russia and Iran to counter sanctions by the West.
A report in the Carnegie Endowment website said Russia is obviously taking advantage of Western policy lapses, growing anti-European sentiment, and longstanding failures of international and local actors to address the root causes of regional instability to strengthen its influence on the continent.

Security experts point to the relevance of these military supplies for the campaigns against Jihadist insurgents across the region.

In January, Niger’s Prime Minister Ali Lamine Zeine and Defense Minister General Salifu Modi met in Moscow with senior officials from the Russian Defense Ministry. Both sides agreed to strengthen security relations, as well as “intensify joint actions to stabilise the situation in the region,” according to a Kremlin statement.

Russian Deputy Defense Ministers Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and Alexander Fomin had also met Niger’s Defense Minister Salifu Modi in Niamey, the Nigerièn capital, to discuss the same issues.

Russian instructors have been on the ground in Mali and Burkina Faso for some time helping them in their war against Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State jihadists, who remain a serious threat to peace in the region. In contrast to the Russians, European defence cooperation missions, such as the EUTM in Mali and GAR-SI Sahel, were considered to have been ineffective by the military juntas.

Regional political commentators say Russia’s growing presence in the region is not just a question of security. Behind the mercenaries, helicopters, and instructors, Russia is also extending its soft power throughout the Sahel, forging commercial links and building key infrastructure.

Trade between Russia and Africa reached $15.5 billion in the first nine months of 2023, marking a significant 43.5% increase compared to the same period in 2022, according to the Ecofin agency. The Sahelian states make up a sizable share of these figures and that share is still expanding.

Some examples are the gold refinery projects in Mali, which is touted to be the largest gold refinery in West Africa with a capacity to produce about 200 tons each year, according to the Minister of Economy and Finance, Alousséni Sanou. He says “This will allow us to not only control all gold production, but we will also be able to correctly apply all taxes and duties.”
Mali is also gearing up for the delivery of an additional 50,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia.

According to Mali’s Ministry of Industry and Trade convened a strategic discussion, this follows a fruitful business delegation to Russia, where they secured deals including the import of wheat, building on an earlier consignment of 75,000 tonnes.

The Malian officials emphasise the importance of this humanitarian effort, highlighting its critical role in supporting the nation’s economy and ensuring food security.

There are also agreements to develop nuclear energy in Mali and in Burkina Faso. These are strategic steps by Russia that experts say would significantly address a major challenge to development in the region, the lack of energy to drive industrial growth.

Russian state atomic energy company, Rosatom, signed agreements with Burkina Faso and Mali that include developing nuclear technology in both countries.

As part of this strategic move into the continent, Russia launched the Russia-Africa Summit, first held in the Russian seaside city of Sochi, to break the isolation, which the Western bloc had initiated after the seizure of Crimea, and to gain access to new markets and natural resources.

The Sahel has become a major focus of this search for new markets, spearheading a strategy that benefits from the growing opposition to Western dominance and control in the region.
The second Africa-Russia summit, held in Saint Petersburg in 2023, had around twenty African heads of state in attendance as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin himself. The event also witnessed the Burkinabé junta leader, Capt. Ibrahim Traoré declare his support for a firm alliance with the Russian government.

Russia’s new push into the Sahel clearly establishes a new geopolitical paradigm that evokes memories of the Cold War era and sets the stage for a new scramble to secure access to the region’s strategic geographical and economic assets. However, growing frustration with Western political, economic and cultural dominance appears to give Russia a leading edge.

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