2025 has finally ended and a new year has commenced, but the memories for West Africa have been marked by a volatile mix of political instability, electoral contests and security challenges.
The region, home to over 400 million people, continues to grapple with the fallout from a series of military coups, strained regional alliances and persistent threats from armed groups.
While some countries have demonstrated resilience through peaceful elections, others have seen democratic processes undermined, raising questions about the future of governance in this economically diverse region.
The year began with heightened concerns over the stability of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the bloc that has long anchored regional integration. In January, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger formalised their withdrawal from ECOWAS, which became effective on 29 January 2025, a move announced the previous year following military takeovers in those states.
These juntas, which seized power between 2020 and 2023, accused ECOWAS of failing to address security threats and imposing unfair sanctions. Instead, they formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), aiming to bolster mutual defence and economic ties.
Analysts suggest this split could hinder efforts to combat jihadist insurgencies, which have displaced millions and strained humanitarian resources across the Sahel.
ECOWAS, marking its 50th anniversary in May, has faced criticism for its diminished influence, though it responded swiftly to threats elsewhere, such as thwarting an attempted coup in Benin on 7 December 2025, when loyalist forces, backed by Nigerian airstrikes and ECOWAS support, quickly suppressed a mutiny by soldiers seeking to overthrow the country’s president, Patrice Talon.
Elections provided both hope and flashpoints. In Ghana, the polls held on 7 December 2024 were hailed as a model of democracy, with candidates signing a “Peace Pact” and power transferring smoothly in early 2025 from the incumbent New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress.
This contrasted sharply with neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, where President Alassane Ouattara won a fourth term on 25 October 2025 amidst opposition boycotts and protests. Key rivals, including former president, Laurent Gbagbo, were barred from running, leading to sporadic violence and the arrest of over 250 demonstrators. International observers noted irregularities, though the vote was largely peaceful compared to past contests.
Further instability unfolded in Guinea-Bissau, a country with a history of coups since independence in 1974. The country’s presidential and legislative elections, held on 23 November 2025, descended into chaos when both incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló and challenger Fernando Dias da Costa claimed victory before results were announced.
On 26 November 2025, military officers announced a takeover, suspending the electoral process and closing borders amidst reports of gunfire near government buildings. This marked the eighth African country under military rule by year’s end, underscoring a broader trend of coups that, while waning since it waned in 2023, has peaked again and remains a risk in fragile states.
In Guinea, military leader, General Mamadi Doumbouya, who ousted Alpha Condé in 2021, broke pledges not to contest for presidency in his restoration of civilian rule by submitting his candidacy for the presidential election held on 28 December 2025. Two major opposition parties were suspended, prompting fears of a flawed process.
Nigeria, West Africa’s most populous country and economic powerhouse, experienced internal upheavals without national elections. In March 2025, the president, Bola Tinubu, declared a state of emergency in the rich Niger Delta state of Rivers, following a feud between the governor, Siminalayi Fubara, and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, suspending officials and appointing an administrator.
October brought a coup scare, with 16 military officers arrested for alleged plotting against the government, coinciding with regional unrest and the cancellation of Independence Day parades.
Political realignments included mass defections from the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC), and the formation of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) by figures like former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, and popular candidate in the 2023 elections, Peter Obi, eyeing 2027 polls.
Externally, US airstrikes on alleged terrorist sites in the north-western state of Sokoto on 25 December 2025 followed Nigeria’s redesignation as a “Country of Particular Concern” for religious freedoms, highlighting international scrutiny.
Security remains a pressing concern, with jihadist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) escalating attacks in Mali, including ambushes on fuel convoys near Bamako. Violence in the Lake Chad Basin pitted Boko Haram against the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), resulting in hundreds of deaths.
Spillover into coastal states like Benin and Togo has prompted calls for strengthened regional mechanisms, such as the Accra Initiative. Humanitarian appeals are chronically underfunded, with many displaced in several Sahel communities.
Looking ahead, 2025’s events expose vulnerabilities in West Africa’s democratic fabric. While Ghana and Senegal offer models of stability, the ECOWAS fracture and persistent coups risk further fragmentation. Economic woes, including inflation and youth unemployment, fuel protests and could ignite more unrest.
Regional leaders have been asked to prioritise dialogue and counter-terrorism cooperation to safeguard progress. 2026 will test whether West Africa can navigate these challenges toward more inclusive governance.
