If the reports of the past few months are anything to go by, Nigeria, as one of the country’s serving senators puts it, faces an existential threat. The government appears overwhelmed by a menacing and multi-dimensional security crisis, with escalating violence perpetrated by jihadists, bandits and criminal gangs pushing the nation, particularly its northern regions, to the edge.
On November 22, armed bandits launched attack on farmers in Gandun Wasagu community in the north-western state of Kebbi, abducting several farmers. The incident comes less than ten days after a previous raid in the community in which more than 40 people were abducted.
Tension and fear are rising across the community, with residents urgently calling for increased protection and immediate relief.
A Relentless Wave of Violence
The depth of the crisis was captured in a devastating 72-hour period that laid bare the fragility of the state’s security apparatus. In Kebbi, a vice principal of a secondary school was killed and 25 schoolgirls were abducted.
In Zamfara, a chieftain of the ruling All Progressives Congress, Umar Moriki, was murdered. In Kwara, terrorists targeted communities, leaving a police officer and a vigilante dead and two chiefs taken hostage; a church was also attacked, resulting in two worshippers killed and several abducted.
This was followed by the mass kidnapping of 315 students and teachers from a Catholic school in the north- central state of Niger, revealing a systemic pattern of targeting schools and places of worship. This has trighered public demand for visible, coordinated, and proactive action from the country’s leadership.
The attack in Zamfara on Nov. 15 exemplifies the brazen nature of these assaults. Armed bandits on motorbikes ambushed vehicles on a major highway, killing the prominent political figure and three others. They abducted at least 64 others in a 15-minute assault despite nearby police presence.
Simultaneously, the jihadist threat in the northeast displayed both its persistence and its evolving sophistication. The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) announced the abduction and execution of a Brigadier General, Musa Uba.
This marks the first highest-ranking officer captured and the second such death of a General on the battlefield in Nigeria’s 15-year insurgency, four years after another Brigadier General, Dzarma Zirkusu, died in a similar confrontation in 2021. The incident represents a significant blow to the Nigerian military’s morale and propaganda efforts.
The Nigerian military initially denied the capture of Brigadier General Uba, but its claim was refuted by a video of him in captivity released by the group, leading to public criticism and speculation about potential intelligence leaks or “insider” involvement.
A Pattern of Brutality and Impunity
These incidents are not isolated. They form a pattern of escalating violence across the northwest and northeast. In Zamfara, banditry has evolved from cattle rustling to sophisticated operations involving highway ambushes and village raids. A July report from the BBC highlighted a grim episode where bandits killed 38 hostages even after ransoms were paid, demonstrating the impunity with which these groups operate.
In Katsina, a military operation in August rescued 76 kidnap victims but came too late for a child who died during the rescue effort, following an attack that claimed 50 lives in a mosque and nearby homes. These criminal enterprises are lucrative, with bandits demanding ransoms as high as 1 million naira ($655) per captive, as witnessed in an abduction in March in the village of Banga.
In the northeast, the conflict with Boko Haram and ISWAP has displaced over 2 million people since 2009, with more than 40,000 killed. A clash in November on the shores of Lake Chad left approximately 200 terrorists dead in a turf war, but this has not made the region safer. A resurgence of drone attacks on army bases, noted by the Nigerian military in August, highlights the increasing technological sophistication of the jihadists, who have begun using commercial drones.
Systemic Failures and a Crisis of Confidence
The government’s response has seen mixed results and apparent contradictions. Military operations, such as airstrikes in August that killed over 30 jihadists, have proven insufficient. Critics argue these efforts are ineffective due to alleged bias and inadequate political will.
This perceived lack of decisive action has led to questions about the administration’s strategic priorities. Critics have raised pointed questions about the president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s unwillingness to impose a state of emergency on states in the north, while he was quick to do the same in the southern state of Rivers over a political conflict between the governor and the state legislature, a move backed by the governor’s predecessor and current minister of the Federal Capital Territory.
The opinion among many observers is that the president is careful not to upset a powerful northern elite that is crucial to his 2027 re-election bid. A state of emergency in the north would strip power from the region’s political leadership, and the president may have been advised against such a politically costly decision.
Peace talks and amnesty programs have also yielded questionable outcomes, with reports of terrorists signing peace deals alongside members of the military and police. This approach has failed to stem the tide. A 2022 law criminalising ransom payments with 15-year jail terms has similarly failed to deter abductions, with the government often seeming to opt for dialogue rather than prosecutions.
The human cost is staggering. Amnesty International’s May report documented at least 10,217 deaths since President Bola Tinubu took office two years ago, attributing the surge to jihadist resurgence and criminal gangs.
In the northwest alone, over 2,266 lives were lost to armed groups in the first half of 2025. Nigerian authorities deny these figures, though. The National Counterterrorism Centre (NCTC) said the figures do not match verified government data.
A devastating incident in Kebbi underscores the systemic failures. After armed men stormed the Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Maga, killing the vice principal and kidnapping students, the state governor, Mohammed Nasir Idris, alleged “clear sabotage.” He stated that the Department of State Services had provided credible intelligence of an imminent attack, which led to a Security Council decision to provide round-the-clock protection.
“The heavily-armed security men spent the entire night guarding the school,” a teacher who narrowly escaped confirmed. “For reasons we still don’t understand, they left before daybreak. About 30 minutes after they withdrew, the kidnappers struck.”
This lapse mirrors a similar failure in 2020 that allowed for the abduction of more than 300 boys in Kankara, Katsina State, raising persistent questions about coordination and commitment within the security architecture.
Root Causes and Unaddressed Fundamentals
Security experts have called for a comprehensive rethink of the government’s approach. They argue that a combination of tougher military action and a major push against unemployment and poverty is needed to dismantle the root causes of the persistent threat.
Key government initiatives designed to address underlying drivers have stalled. The National Livestock Transformation Plan, launched in 2019 to address farmer-herder tensions identified as a major cause of banditry, has foundered because of funding issues and a lack of expertise.
There is also a growing perception that the political will to tackle the problem at its source is absent. In 2022, the Nigerian government announced it had uncovered 96 financiers of terrorism and 424 of their supporters.
123 companies and 33 currency exchanges were also linked to terrorism. To date, the state has not publicly named these individuals, leading to public frustration and accusations of a lack of seriousness.
This sentiment is further provoked by a perceived lack of accountability. The luckiest person in Nigeria now is Tinubu, some observers note. Despite the security crisis, he does not face a serious political opposition to pressure him, with the main opposition parties – the PDP, ADC and LP – described as in disarray or having lost their steam.
A Region on the Brink
The emergence of groups like the Lakurawa group, declared a terrorist organisation in January and linked to attacks in Sokoto and Kebbi, signals a regional dimension to Nigeria’s security challenges, with instability in neighbouring Mali and Niger spilling across borders.
The situation is even more complicated by the reality of the numbers confronting Nigeria. There are at least a million of these young potential recruits scattered all over the north camping in forests and living in villages amongst the people. Some see a military victory as impossible.
Nigeria does not have the resources to fight them. The fight has already imposed huge financial burden on the country. There are reports that they are moving further south. Many security experts warn that U.S military intervention, which is unlikely, would be a disaster similar or even worse than Afghanistan, Iraq or Syria.
For the average Nigerian, especially in the north, the reality is grim. The region is no longer safe. Communities like Makirin in Kebbi are reeling, with terrified survivors fleeing to larger towns for refuge.
The crisis has exposed a deep erosion of public confidence in the state’s ability to fulfill its most basic function: protecting the lives and property of its citizens. With time running out for a region teetering on the edge, the calls for a decisive and effectively implemented strategy grow ever more urgent.
