Lagos, Nigeria
In a rare admission that exposes a worrying fracture within Nigeria’s political space, the Defence Headquarters (DHQ) has confirmed that a group of military officers plotted to overthrow the Bola Tinubu government. The revelation, made public on 26 January, follows months of speculation and initial denials, highlighting ongoing tensions within the armed forces amidst serious national challenges.
The DHQ’s statement, issued by Major General Samaila Uba, the Director of Defence Information, detailed the conclusion of a special investigative panel’s probe into 16 officers arrested in October 2025.
Initially described as detentions for “acts of indiscipline and breaches of service regulations,” the investigation uncovered evidence of a coup attempt, including allegations of surveillance on the Presidential Villa in Abuja and potential infiltration through compromised contractors like Julius Berger, which maintains the site.
Uba emphasised that the findings identified actions “inconsistent with the ethics, values, and professional standards” of the Armed Forces of Nigeria (AFN), and the indicted personnel would face court martial under the Armed Forces Act.
The list of officers, predominantly from northern states, includes high-ranking figures such as Brigadier General Musa Abubakar Sadiq from the north-western Nasarawa state and Colonel M.A. Ma’aji from the north-central state of Niger, alongside lieutenant colonels, majors, captains, a navy lieutenant commander, and an air force squadron leader.
Fourteen are from the army, with one each from the navy and air force, spanning various corps like infantry, signals, and ordnance. Their states of origin, Bauchi, Kaduna, Plateau, Gombe, Katsina, Jigawa, and others, have fuelled discussions about ethnic and regional divides in a country where power dynamics often reflect north-south fault lines.
The Coup attempt, some say, may be the result of frustrations within the military with the Insecurity in the North, a situation the government has largely failed to bring under control..
Tinubu, a Yoruba from the southwest, assumed office in 2023 after a contentious election, and critics have pointed to perceived marginalisation of northern elites as a possible undercurrent.
The arrests trace back to October 2025, when rumours swirled on social media about a thwarted coup, prompting the cancellation of the Independence Day parade, a move the government attributed to unrelated security concerns.
At the time, the then DHQ spokesperson, Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, dismissed the claims as “false and misleading,” insisting the detentions stemmed from internal grievances like repeated failures in promotion exams and career stagnation.
However, intelligence reports later revealed unusual activities around the Villa, leading to expanded probes that implicated civilians as well. In response, Tinubu overhauled the military leadership, appointing new chiefs of defence, army, navy, and air staff to “strengthen national security architecture.” Only the chief of defence intelligence retained his post, which West Africa Report had hinted was an indication of reward for foiling a possible coup at the time.
This confirmation comes against a backdrop of Nigeria’s turbulent history with military interventions. The country endured six successful coups between 1966 and 1993, the last unseating an interim government before the return to civilian rule in 1999.
Analysts note that West Africa’s recent wave of military takeovers, in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, and Guinea-Bissau most recently, often follows disputed elections, economic woes, and security breakdowns, patterns echoed in Nigeria today.
Tinubu’s government grapples with soaring inflation, currency devaluation, and rampant insecurity from Boko Haram in the northeast to banditry in the northwest, exacerbating public discontent.
Experts warn of the political implications. “The dominance of northern officers in the list could stoke ethnic suspicions, especially ahead of the 2027 elections,” said a political analyst. He added that such plots reflect deeper frustrations within the military, where promotions are politicised and resources strained by prolonged counter-insurgency operations. Legal experts highlight the severity. If convicted, the officers could face the death penalty, though military trials emphasise due process.
Public reactions have been mixed. A pro-democracy group, Concerned Pro-Democratic Activists of Nigeria, has urged Tinubu to ensure fair treatment for the detainees, citing reports of deteriorating health and denied family access since their arrest. The presidency has remained tight-lipped beyond expressing confidence in the military’s handling.
Court martial proceedings are expected to commence soon, as the episode highlights democracy’s vulnerabilities in Africa’s most populous country. With economic reforms biting hard and security threats unabated, maintaining military loyalty will be crucial for Tinubu’s tenure. The DHQ insists the process upholds constitutional authority, but observers will watch closely for signs of wider purges or reforms to prevent future unrest.
