By Abdulkareem Jubril
Located on the Mambilla Plateau in the north eastern state of Taraba, near the Cameroonian border, the Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project stands as a symbol of Nigeria’s grand ambitions and chronic frustrations.
Once considered the African “Three Gorges Dam”, the mega-dam complex was planned fifty years ago as a solution to Nigeria’s electricity needs. It promises to be Africa’s largest hydropower facility, generating 3,050 megawatts (MW) of clean energy, enough to power a quarter of the country’s current demand and export surplus to its neighbours.
Legal, financial, and political problems have stopped the site’s construction. The Nigerian government is trying to revive the project, but the challenges it faces receals some of the challenges plaguing the country’s infrastructure drive.
The project’s history is a tale of unrealised potential. The first feasibility study dates back to 1972, conducted by Moto Columbus, envisioning a series of dams on the Donga River to harness the plateau’s abundant rainfall, averaging over 1,900 mm annually, and steep 1,000-meter drops for hydropower. By 1982, under the Shehu Shagari government, initial surveys began, but military coups and economic instability derailed progress.
The design evolved from an initial 2,000 MW capacity to 3,050 MW in 2012, incorporating four dams (Nya, Sumsum, Nghu, and Api Weir), two underground powerhouses with 12 Pelton turbines, 33 km of tunnels, and 700 km of transmission lines to Jalingo and Makurdi. Estimated at $5.8 billion, it was to create 50,000 jobs, boost irrigation for food security, control flooding, and promote tourism in Taraba and Benue states.
Delays, however, have been relentless. Under Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Goodluck Jonathan, billions of naira were allocated through the National Integrated Power Projects, but funds were allegedly siphoned with little on-ground work beyond surveys, earning it a reputation as a “conduit pipe” for corruption.
In 2003, a $6 billion Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) contract was awarded to Sunrise Power and Transmission Ltd., a local firm partnered with Chinese investors, who secured $5.5 billion from China’s Exim Bank. But in 2007, the government revoked it, awarding a $1.46 billion civil works deal to China Gezhouba Group (CGGC) and Sinohydro.
Sunrise contested the move as a breach, leading to a 14-year arbitration at the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris. It asked for $2.3 billion in compensation. It also wanted to prevent its rival from getting loans from Exim Bank, which were on hold until the case was resolved.
Environmentalists warn that the project will force out 140,000 people from their homes and it could cause serious damage to farmlands and fishing grounds. There are still complaints over financial settlements in some communities, including Kakara and Gembu, where people claim they have not been paid the compensation they were promised
Surveys began in late 2020 but were stopped in 2022 because the contractors were not paid. Buildings were left unfinished. The effort also faced delays from COVID, and a recession. Corruption probes by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) have ensnared figures, including a former minister, Olu Agunloye, charged with fraudulently awarding the 2003 contract without budgetary backing, and an ex-Power minister, Saleh Mamman, accused of diverting N22 billion.
Under former president, Muhammadu Buhari, efforts intensified. In 2017, the Federal Executive Council approved a $5.79 billion Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contract to a CGGC-led consortium (with Sinohydro and CGCOC), financed 85% by Exim Bank and 15% by Nigeria ($870 million equity).
Buhari directed the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA) in 2021 to audit the project’s value and settle the Sunrise dispute, reducing costs to $4.8 billion and scaling capacity temporarily to 1,525 MW for bankability. A 2020 settlement, brokered after Chinese President Xi Jinping’s intervention, cleared major hurdles, with the then Attorney General, Abubakar Malami, finalising terms.
The government allocated N425 million in the 2021 budget for preparatory works, including site sensitisation, skill training for 500 youths via the Youths Empowerment and Skills Acquisition Training (YESAT), and hydrological data collection. Land was acquired from the host state, Taraba, and a project delivery committee formed.
In 2023, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu took steps to restart the Mambilla Dam project. In July of the following year, Senator Manu Haruna from Taraba urged the Senate to review past dealings of the project and keep its 3,000 MW capacity, as it looked into other delayed projects.
EFCC actions continued, declaring the chairman of Sunrise, Leno Adesanya, wanted in February 2024, though he sought injunctions against arrest. Some prominent Legal experts urged amicable settlements to avoid the embarrassing situation witnessed with an earlier case by a company, P&ID, that saw a UK court award huge damages against Nigeria.
In August, the cabinet re-awarded the $5.8 billion contract to CCECC, indicating commitment despite the ongoing arbitration proceedings initiated by Sunrise. Power Minister Adebayo Adelabu announced mobilisation of equipment, with construction slated to start imminently, targeting a 2030 completion date, though experts predict seven to 10 years from ground-breaking due to some complexities.
A new $500 million World Bank project, Sustainable Power and Irrigation for Nigeria (SPIN), approved in 2024, will help with dam safety and irrigation, which also helps the Mambilla project. The governor of the state has promised to build roads and resettle 140,000 affected people.
In spite of these, challenges loom. Exim Bank’s viability concerns persist, with Nigeria’s 15% contribution strained by debt (over N23 trillion nationally). Community leaders in Gembu express doubts, citing uncompensated surveys and land grabs by officials. Some environmental groups have also warned of biodiversity loss and gender disparities in resettlement.
Aligning with Nigeria’s Vision 30:30:30 (30 GW capacity, 30% renewables by 2030), Mambilla could cut carbon emissions and save $5 to 8 billion regionally via West African Power Pool exports. However, the project’s fate tests the Tinubu government’s resolve.
The project could change the country’s economy by creating jobs. But it needs clear funding, fast resettlement, and clear anti-corruption rules. Without these, it may never be completed.
