Former governor and critic of Tinubu government, Nasir El-Rufai (L),Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (C), and northern political leader and former Tinubu aide, Hakeem Baba Ahmed (R).
The political landscape in Nigeria is heating up, and the latest spark comes from an unexpected quarter. A recent online interview with Hakeem Baba Ahmed, a prominent northern politician and former adviser to Nigerian president, Bola Tinubu, has sent shockwaves through the country’s already tense political scene.
In the chat, he declared that Nigeria’s northern powerbrokers will soon reveal their game plan for the 2027 presidential elections, and they are not mincing words. “In the next six months, the North will decide where it stands,” he said bluntly, “If the rest of the country wants to join us, fine. If not, we will go our own way. Nobody can become president without northern support.” He warned that rigging the 2027 elections could lead to “devastating consequences” for Nigeria’s stability.
The interview has sent shockwaves through Tinubu’s political camp, hinting at cracks in the alliance that propelled him to power just two years ago. But this isn’t just about political loyalties. It is a perfect storm of economic pain, security nightmares, and bare-knuckle ambition threatening to tear the country apart.
Tinubu’s reforms, which include scrapping fuel subsidies and letting the naira free-fall, have hit ordinary Nigerians really hard. Current inflation figures are at 24.23%, with food prices at 21.79%, both figures considerably high when evaluated in both domestic and global economic contexts. In the North, where the poverty rate is between 65 and 70% on average, these policies feel like a death sentence. Add to that the daily terror of bandit raids and Boko Haram’s lingering shadow, and the country is faced with a region pushed to the brink.
Many northern leaders feel Tinubu owes them. After all, they delivered the votes in 2023 to shift power south following eight years of northern rule under ex-President Buhari. Now, they are grumbling about broken promises. “He’s forgotten who brought him to the dance,” muttered a political insider in Kano, Nigeria’s northern commercial hub.
Baba Ahmed’s call for northern unity plays right into this anger, positioning the region’s 23 million voters as kingmakers. But pundits question his sudden passion. His resignation from Tinubu’s team in April, after a public feud with minister of state for Defence, Bello Matawalle, “reeks of sour grapes,” scoffed a Lagos analyst.
Southern politicians are not sitting idle. In a cheeky twist, Akwa Ibom’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) Governor Umo Eno, a member of the opposition, recently hailed Tinubu as a visionary leader for projects like the Lagos-Calabar Highway. Meanwhile, Governor of the southern state of Edo,Monday Okpebholo, who is a member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), is rallying grassroots support for Tinubu’s 2027 bid, dismissing the relevance of northern rivals like the last PDP presidential contestant, Atiku Abubakar, who is still being touted as a presidential candidate for 2027.
The real fireworks, however, are up north. Nasir El-Rufai, the former governor of the northern Kaduna state and political shape-shifter, as he has been described by some, is the new rival. After Tinubu snubbed him for a ministerial post in 2023, El-Rufai ditched the APC for the Social Democratic Party (SDP), slamming the administration as “Nigeria’s most corrupt.” and “worst” in Nigeria’s history during an interview with journalists in Katsina on April 14
His new “League of Northern Democrats” aims to unite opposition parties, but some political watchers are not buying his act. A social media post once described him as building “a political career on cunning, opportunism and betrayal. Once seen as a young, brilliant technocrat, he has become one of Nigeria’s most polarising figures.”
The ghost of 2023’s disputed elections still haunts Nigeria. Many northerners accuse INEC of tilting the scales last time, and Baba Ahmed’s warning that 2027 could “break the country” isn’t just hot air. With religious and regional tensions simmering, even a whiff of foul play might spark chaos.
Tinubu’s team is scrambling to fix his image. The controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket that won him northern support in 2023 has become a liability, alienating southern Christians. Whispers suggest he might pick a northern Christian running mate next time—a move that could backfire with his base.
As the political chessboard shifts, many are asking if figures like Baba Ahmed and El-Rufai are genuine champions of the North, or simply exploiting regional grievances for a political comeback. For the average northerner battling bandits and hunger, the answer might not matter. What is clear is that Nigeria’s political class is playing a dangerous game in which the casualties could extend far beyond their own ambitions.
With opposition parties in disarray and the APC already drumming up support for Tinubu’s re election, the next six months will test whether this “northern awakening” is a revolution or just another political sideshow.
