Akinwumi Adesina, president of the AfDB
Dr. Akinwumi Adesina, the head of the African Development Bank (AfDB), made a startling revelation that Nigeria’s economy is in a much worse situation than most people think. The statistics he shared reveal a grim fact. The income of the average Nigerian, when broken down per person, is only $824 now, a significant drop from $1,847 back when the country gained independence in 1960. Basically, Nigerians are poorer today than they were 64 years ago.
This has sparked a serious debate among Nigerians. With the biggest economy in Africa and a major oil producer, many question how the situation has become so grim. Nigeria has long relied on oil money to keep its government running, while other sectors with real potential to grow the economy have been ignored.
It is ironic that the country sits on massive oil wealth, yet basic services and infrastructure are still in terrible shape. Experts often blame the “resource curse” for this mess. When a country has too much of one valuable resource, like oil, it tends to breed corruption and makes leaders lazy about building a real, diversified economy, they say.
The numbers do not lie. According to the AfDB, nearly half of Nigerians, about 46%, were living in poverty by 2023, thanks to soaring prices and the Naira losing its value. And so far, 2025 has not brought much relief. The World Bank has revealed that 75.5 per cent of rural dwellers now live below the poverty line in Nigeria The promise of oil wealth has not translated into better lives for most people. Instead, it has just made a few richer while the rest keep struggling.
The country also placed 163rd out of 193 countries in Human Development Index (HDI) in the 2023/24 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report (HDR), with corruption identified as the main culprit by several studies.
South Korea is an example economic experts cite as proof of how poorly Nigeria has performed economically over the years. The country was poorer than Nigeria in 1960. Compared to Nigeria today, subsequent governments’ smart planning has seen average earnings grow to $36,000 a year on average. Nigeria, on the other hand, has been held back by bad decisions, shaky systems, and total dependence on oil.
Adesina is not just pointing fingers. He is pushing for a fix. But his speech has lit a match under a country that is already on edge. The question many ask is whether Nigeria can turn things around, or it is stuck in this downward spiral.
The concerns Adesina raised are not new to him. As Nigeria’s Agriculture Minister under President Goodluck Jonathan, he led attempts to address pressing challenges within that sector. He slashed food imports by 850 billion naira and increased food production by 8 million tonnes, as reported by Reuters in 2013. When he was in office, many credited him with fixing the broken fertiliser subsidy system, cutting out the corruption that had long kept aid from reaching the farmers who needed it most.
Speaking at the event, Adesina laid out his vision for moving the country forward. Reliable power, better roads and ports, faster industrial growth, support for tech-driven solutions, and a stronger farming sector were the pillars of his plan. Unlike empty promises, his strategy zeroed in on the biggest hurdles holding Nigeria back..
Nigeria’s power situation is one example of a major headache that has stifled development for years. In spite of the country’s huge oil wealth, it has not been able to end regular blackouts. Back in 2013, a Reuters story pointed out how companies like the major palm oil producing outfit, Okomu Palm, often have to take matters into their own hands, building their own roads and setting up generators because the government’s infrastructure does not meet the company’s needs..
Adesina also commended the Dangote Refinery, the world’s largest single train refinery owned by Aliko Dangote, Africa’s wealthiest individual, as a model for private-led industrial projects. He also urged the Nigerian government to tap into its pension funds, diaspora talent, and capital markets to fund similar initiatives. But he was clear; none of this will work without strong institutions, consistent policies, and a corruption-free environment.
The reactions by some Nigerians to Adesina’s remarks tell a story of a deeply divided nation struggling to cope with its current situation. Some Nigerians who agreed with him say the blame is on the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for taking the country backward. As one commentator puts it, “The facts are there, and I choose not to close my eyes to it.” This reflects the frustration of many who feel the APC’s policies have failed.
On the flip side of the debate are those who have accused Adesina of “demarketing” Nigeria, suggesting his comments could scare off investors and tarnish the country’s image.
Tinubu’s presidency has seen some positive shifts. He has pushed through bold but harsh reforms, ending the fuel subsidy and floating the national currency, the Naira, saving over 1 trillion naira ($1.32 billion) in his first two months in office. GDP is up, the budget gap has narrowed, and money from non-oil sectors is growing. Even foreign reserves look better, partly thanks to new policies and a slight bounce-back in oil.
None of that has made life easier for most people. The policies have also driven up inflation. Petrol prices jumped 167% from May to December 2023, and left many Nigerians struggling. A social commentator summed up the despair many Nigerians voice daily. “This country isn’t getting better any time soon.”
Soaring inflation, a struggling naira, and worsening poverty have undercut economic progress, leaving millions worse off. Even with modest growth, the economy still falls short of the 6% benchmark experts say Nigeria needs to truly transform.
Adesina’s 2025 remarks hit home because they come at a pivotal moment for the country. Tinubu’s reforms, while fiscally necessary, have deepened short-term pain. The World Bank predicted in 2023 that subsidy removal could save 3.9 trillion naira annually but would also spike inflation, a prediction that has come true.
Meanwhile, the country’s human capital remains underdeveloped. A May 2024 report by UNICEF says there are an estimated 18.3 million out-of-school children in Nigeria, positioning it as the country with the highest number globally. This figure includes children of primary and secondary school age, with 60% being girls. Several reports also estimate that 24.7 million children, 39.2% of children aged between 5 and 17, are engaged in child labour, defined as work that is age-inappropriate, hazardous, or detrimental to their health, education, or development.
These figures show that the issue is as much a human one as it is economic. Families are struggling to survive, and the gap between the wealthy elite and the poor majority is widening.
Adesina’s call for “bold structural changes” feels like a plea to break this cycle. Weak institutions and inconsistent policies have stifled progress, and the political will to change is often drowned out by partisan noise. His vision of a corruption-free, industrialised, and diversified economy by 2050, is ambitious but not impossible.
The Dangote Refinery, a $19 billion project, proves that large-scale private investment can work. But it will take more than one refinery to turn the tide. As he points out, Nigeria needs to invest in its people through sectors like education, healthcare, and skills training. It needs to fix its infrastructure, starting with the power sector, which has crippled businesses for decades. And it needs to tackle corruption head-on, not with rhetoric but with action.
The debate sparked by Adesina’s speech illustrates Nigeria’s broader struggle. It is a nation torn between hope and frustration, progress and regression. For every Nigerian who see Adesina’s words as a wake-up call, there’s another who feels attacked. But, as one pundit puts it, “the escape from the “resource curse”, requires that we listen to voices like Adesina’s, not with defensiveness, but with determination.”
