Gen. Abdourahamane Tchiani. Niger Military leader.
The head of the military junta in Niger Republic, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, has agreed to dialogue with ECOWAS after his meeting with Nigerian Islamic Scholars led by the national leader of Jama’atu Izalatil Bid’ah Wa Iqamatus Sunnah (JIBWIS), Sheikh Abdullahi Bala Lau in Niamey.
According to Niger Republic’s Prime Minister, Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine, General Tchiani indicated his willingness to talk with ECOWAS and was optimistic the talks with ECOWAS would take place within the next few days.
He said ‘’we have agreed and the leader of our country has given the green light for dialogue. They will now go back and inform the Nigerian President what they have heard from us…. we hope in the coming days, they (ECOWAS) will come here to meet us to discuss how the sanctions imposed against us will be lifted.”
It is not clear if the decision indicates a willingness to accede to demands by the organisation to reinstate Mohamed Bazoum, but it opens a window that could end the possibility of military action against the junta.
What shape the dialogue would take is anyone’s guess. However, political observers say even if the military reinstates Bazoum, it may likely make a number of demands of its own.
Some pundits say the first demand that the junta would put on the table is an agreement that would guarantee their immunity from prosecution. Judging from events in Mali, demands for amendments to the country’s constitution could also be on the cards.
The military leaders could also make demands to guarantee national sovereignty as a face-saving way out of power, since they have rallied a large part of the Nigerièn population against foreign (especially French) presence in the country, some sources say.
The current hostilities with France may result in the junta demanding that President Bazoum expel French forces from the country while possibly pushing through a separate agreement with the Russian private military contractor, Wagner.
If the country’s struggling economy was really one of the factors that instigated the coup, as the junta leaders claimed, then the military may also insist on renegotiation of trade terms with France, without any restrictions on Niger Republic as an independent nation.
Observers, however, say these are mere predictions and the negotiations could entertain many more demands or far less.
