President of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embaló’
BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau
Fresh World Bank data paints a picture of modest economic resilience as Guinea-Bissau’s GDP grew by an estimated 4.6% in 2024, edging up from 4.4% the previous year. Driven primarily by booming cashew exports, which accounts for over 90% of the country’s trade. The expansion offered a glimmer of hope for a population where more than half live below the poverty line.
This fragile uptick, however, masks deep-seated vulnerabilities, from climate shocks to commodity price swings, even as the shadow of disputed 2025 elections looms large, threatening to unravel a hard-won stability. The World Bank’s latest overview credits the growth to a rebound in services and subsistence agriculture, with per capita expansion at 2.3% providing a slight buffer against inflation, which cooled to around 3.8%.
Cashew production, the lifeblood of Guinea-Bissau’s economy, surged despite a lacklustre global campaign that shaved off initial projections of 5% growth. “Higher farmgate prices stimulated private consumption, but the sector’s volatility leaves little room for complacency,” noted World Bank Country Economist Maria Elkhdari in the report.
Fiscal deficits narrowed marginally to 7.3% of GDP through expenditure controls and donor grants, though public debt ballooned to 82.3%, straining access to regional financing. For smallholder farmers, the gains feel tangible. One farmer said “Last year’s exports meant school fees for my children, first time in years.” Infrastructure wins sustained the momentum.
The commissioning of major segments of the West African Power Pool (OMVG) interconnection in early 2024 slashed electricity costs, powering homes and factories from Guinea and Senegal. Investments in the Bissau port and a new airport terminal promise to ease trade bottlenecks, fostering regional integration.
Projections for 2025 hold steady at 4.7% growth, with inflation dipping to 2%, but experts warn of headwinds. Erratic rains, donor fatigue, and overreliance on raw cashews hinder diversification. The African Development Bank echoes this, projecting 5.2% in 2026 if governance reforms take root, yet poverty, stubborn at 67%, demands urgent social spending.
Against this backdrop, political fissures deepen the fragility. General elections, now slated for November 23 to December 14, after a contentious postponement from 2024, are mired in disputes over timing and power. The country’s president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló’s term, originally from 2020, sparked outrage when opposition parties, led by the PAIGC, insisted it expired February 27, 2025, demanding immediate polls.
Embaló, backed by a Supreme Court ruling extending his term to September 4, dissolved the opposition-controlled parliament in December 2023, citing a “coup attempt,” and rescheduled votes amidst gunfire rumours and ECOWAS mediation failures. In March, he flip-flopped on re-election before announcing in September he would step down, fuelling accusations of authoritarian manoeuvring to consolidate control.
The turmoil has ECOWAS on edge, with a February mission fleeing after expulsion threats. “This isn’t just about dates—it’s executive overreach eroding democratic norms,” warned opposition leader Domingos Simões Pereira, whose 2019 runoff loss to Embaló remains contested.
Street protests in Bissau, quelled by security forces, highlight the stakes. Instability could deter investors, spike inflation, and revive Guinea-Bissau’s coup-prone history, nine attempts since independence in 1974.
