The formation of the AES, a development triggered by a series of punitive steps taken against the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger for embarking on military coups against their democratically elected governments, has eventually resulted in the withdrawal of the three states from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
The immense social and economic pressures that the countries are currently experiencing are predicted to create another major front of contention, especially between the Republic of Niger and its big neighbour to the south, Nigeria.
Among the tough sanctions that Nigeria imposed on Niamey, the disconnection of Niger from its southern neighbour’s electricity grid appears to be one of the most devastating. Supply from Nigeria accounts for 70% of the electricity used in Niger, following agreements signed between both nations in 1971 and 1972.
Reports say the Niger electricity company (Nigelec) is currently only managing to meet between 25% and 50% of demand, depending on the region. Load shedding and power cuts have worsened in the country since Nigeria disconnected the landlocked country’s electricity, and pressure from its people is forcing the government into searching for alternatives.
Niger’s current energy crisis may provoke the toughest response from its government yet, a response that could create a serious energy crisis for Nigeria if steps are not taken to start negotiations on ending the sanctions, many suggest.
The energy agreement signed between both states was based on the understanding that the Niger Republic, a country through which the River Niger runs down to Nigeria, would not dam the water and build its own hydropower plant, as this would significantly reduce the volume of water for generation on the Nigerian side. As a result of this fact, Nigeria would make available a percentage of the power being generated for their use.
Before the July coup d’état, Niger’s ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, took steps to commence construction of the Kandadji hydroelectric dam, a contract that was signed in 2010 under the transitional government of General Salou Djibo and scheduled for completion around 2016.
The project was repeatedly criticised for its slow progress and was beset by countless delays under President Mahamadou Issoufou, who eventually cancelled the $170m deal with the Russian state-owned firm, Zarubezhvodstroy, that was building the dam 180km northwest of Niamey.
The construction phase of the Kandadji hydroelectric project began in 2019 after a new contract was awarded to a Chinese firm, China Gezhouaba Group Company (CGGC). Once finished, the dam is projected to enhance the country’s power grid by 50 per cent.
The decision by Nigeria to halt its electricity provision appears to be a form of leveraging power, some regional political analysts say. However, many believe the decision clearly goes against Nigeria’s self-interest, and the need for Niger to activate its own energy resources could have unintended consequences.
A Nigerian legal expert says the effects of Niger’s construction of the Kandadji dam draw parallels to the challenges posed by the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile.
“First, Nigeria has conveyed a strong message that Niger should pursue energy independence. Regrettably, this stance will expedite Niger’s Kandadji Dam Project, potentially leading to reduced water flow downstream into Nigeria.” It is believed that this would significantly affect Nigeria’s electricity supply.
“Secondly, this decision risks rendering Nigeria’s substantial investment in the development of the 33kv power line to Niger a stranded asset. Thirdly, it will deprive the Nigerian economy of the opportunity to earn the much-needed foreign exchange, through the sale of electricity to Niger by Nigerian power generation companies,” he adds.
Niger’s reliance on Nigeria’s energy supply is not due to the absence of natural resources to generate electricity. Analysts say, the country has significant energy potentials, rich and varied, but it is weakly exploited.
Data from official sources indicate that proven reserves of uranium in the northern region of Agadez are estimated at 450,000 tonnes. The country, which has Africa’s highest-grade uranium ores, produced 2,020 metric tons of uranium in 2022, about 5% of world mining output, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA). This was down from 2,991 tons in 2020.
Mineral coal reserves located in northern Niger are over 90 million tons, it is estimated. Around 70 million tons in Salkadamna, in the Tahoua region, about 900 km (600 miles) northeast of the capital Niamey. It has an estimated one billion barrels and Natural gas reserves estimated at 18.6 billion m3.
The country’s hydroelectric potential is also extensive. It is estimated at approximately 280.5 MW, including 130 MW in Kandadji, 122.5 MW on the River Niger in Gambou, and 26 MW in Dyondyonga on the Mekrou River.
Solar energy is achievable throughout the territory where the average insolation level is 5 to 7 kW/ m2 per day with an average of 8.5 hours per day. Wind speeds, ranging from 2.5 m/s in the south to 5 m/s in the north, are in favour of wind turbines to pump water, the Belgium-based Energy Charter Secretariat says.
In spite of its current energy crisis. Niger is still showing that it has the potential to surmount the challenges and even assist its Sahelian neighbours to overcome similar challenges faced by them. There are already talks of an energy solidarity between the three states, with Niger offering to reach out to its neighbours in the Sahel who are experiencing diesel supply difficulties.
The country’s leadership says it is committed to supplying diesel to Chad, Mali and Burkina Faso, thus contributing to meeting their energy needs and consolidating regional solidarity.
This followed a meeting of Energy Ministers of the countries concerned, held in Niamey on February 17, where a memorandum of understanding was signed. This official document seals Niger’s commitment to supplying diesel to its neighbours, underlining the common desire to strengthen energy cooperation in the region.
The press release published at the end of the meeting indicated that discussions are underway with Togo for the country’s inclusion in this diesel supply agreement. This inclusive initiative reflects Niger’s ambition to play a central role in resolving the energy challenges facing the Sahel region.
From the Nigerièn military junta’s posture, there is a clear push towards establishing energy infrastructure. However, one of the major setbacks for the country is financing. Niger is struggling with serious financial shortfalls.
In terms of funding for development projects, the World Bank (WB) reported that “only $82 million (0.55% of GDP) was disbursed in 2023, compared with an expected flow of $625 million (3.6% of GDP)”, according to the study, which indicates that this suspension “will weigh heavily on the country’s ability to implement projects and execute the budget”.
At the beginning of October, the military regime announced a 40% reduction in the national budget for 2023, due to the “heavy sanctions imposed by international and regional organisations”, which “expose the country to a significant drop in both external and internal revenue”.
The ECOWAS sanctions prevent Niger from accessing the regional financial market of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (Union Economique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine, UEMOA, in French) to finance its budget and carry out banking transactions.
The WB also reported that “the new administration has missed several interest payments on its debt, a situation that has already led to arrears and could very probably lead to the suspension” of other international financial support.
As a result of these financial challenges, Nigelec’s financial situation is deteriorating, according to the WB. The commissioning of the Gorou Banda solar power plant, financed by the French Development Agency (AFD), has been delayed as the country re-evaluates its economic cooperation with France.
Work on the Kandadji dam, financed by AFD, the West African Development Bank (BOAD) and the ECOWAS Investment Bank (EBID), has also come to a halt.
It is expected that the military regime may open paths to negotiating for financial assistance from new partners, such as China and Russia. How willing these countries would be to violate the sanctions imposed by international and regional forces would determine the next step for Niger.
There are indications that the sanctions imposed by the regional body, ECOWAS, may ease up soon, following remarks by Nigeria’s president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, that Nigeria and ECOWAS were willing to talk with the Sahel states to resolve the current impasse.
If this does not happen, then both countries will have to be prepared for tough times ahead on the energy front.
