The announcement by Burkina Faso’s military government that it thwarted a plot to assassinate the president, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, and destabilise the country has raised fears that the country may be on the brink of a new, more violent phase in its ongoing internal power struggles.
The country’s security minister, Mahamadou Sana, announced on January 6-7 that the scheme, allegedly funded from neighbouring Côte d’Ivoire, involved ousted former military leader, Lieutenant-Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, who handled planning, funding, and recruitment.
There has been no immediate response from Côte d’Ivoire or Damiba, who has lived in exile in Togo since being deposed by Captain Traoré in a 2022 coup and who served as president for about 8 months before being removed.
The minister said the plan targeted senior military and civilian figures, including attacks on key institutions, and was set for the night of January 3, at 11 p.m. It was to start with Traoré’s assassination (either at close range or by planting explosives at his residence), with a drone base neutralised to weaken defenses.
Several suspects, including military personnel and civilians, have been arrested, with nationwide arrests continuing. There are reports that a close ally of Damiba was arrested on January 3. Investigations ongoing including a probe ordered. There were also claims that audio or video recordings emerged showing suspects discussing the plan.
This is the latest in a series of alleged threats against Traoré, who has faced what credible reports describe as at least two confirmed coup attempts since seizing power in September 2022, but several additional plots have been alleged by the government. In April 2025, authorities claimed to have foiled a major plot allegedly linked to opponents in Côte d’Ivoire, though specific details like a $5m bribe offer to guards remain unverified.
Other incidents include a reported rocket mishap at the national broadcaster in June 2024, dismissed by Traoré as an accidental friendly fire incident amidst rumours of internal tensions.
Traoré, 37, came to power promising to tackle the jihadist insurgency that has plagued Burkina Faso since 2015, displacing many communities and killing thousands. He has built stronger ties with Russia for security support.
His expulsion of French troops and alignment with Mali and Niger in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) has shown an anti-Western rhetoric that has resonated widely with supporters who view him as a pan-African hero that stands against neo-colonialism.
Public support has emerged as a crucial bulwark against these threats. In past incidents, thousands of civilians have mobilised overnight to guard the presidential palace, forming human shields against potential coups, and in this case, Burkinabe people took to the streets to defend Traoré.
Reactions to the latest plot overwhelmingly back Traoré, with many of his supporters decrying foreign interference, including accusations of CIA and French involvement with the U.S. and France “kicked out”. Yet analysts question whether these repeated announcements serve to consolidate power.
Critics argue Mr Traoré uses them to justify purges within the military and delay elections, originally promised for 2024 but now postponed indefinitely. While public backing has deterred plotters, seen in loyalist rallies and alleged defections exposing plots, experts warn it risks entrenching authoritarianism, though Traoré has emerged “strengthened”.
Burkina Faso has made important strides in its battle against insurgencies, and the successes recorded, even with some setbacks, has strengthened Traoré’s cult of personality, with some linking the attempt to Traoré’s efforts for greater sovereignty, including control of the country’s gold reserves.
Some analysts say this may sustain him in the short-term, but long-term stability demands inclusive governance and regional cooperation. The Sahel’s volatility underscores the fragility of such support in the midst of ongoing threats.
