Nigeria is grappling with a contentious narrative following reports by two popular Nigerian online news platforms, Premium Times and Sahara Reporters, alleging a foiled coup plot targeting President Bola Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima, and other top officials.
Premium Times, in an exclusive published on October 18, 2025, claimed that 20 disgruntled military officers planned to assassinate key government figures, including Nigeria’s president, Bola Tinubu, with a tentative date set for October 25.
Sahara Reporters echoed this, citing a senior Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) official who alleged that 16 officers, including a brigadier general and a colonel, were planning a coup, intending to strike during the October 1 Independence Day parade. These reports suggest pre-emptive arrests and the cancellation of the parade as responses to this threat.
The Defence Headquarters (DHQ) has categorically denied these claims, labeling them misinformation. It stated that the reports are completely unfounded, harmful, and aimed at creating undue anxiety and mistrust within the community.
Premium Times detailed a sophisticated plan where coup plotters aimed to simultaneously assassinate Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima, Senate President Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker Tajudeen Abbas, while arresting but not killing top military officers like the service chiefs.
The report suggests the plotters had informants within the Presidential Villa monitoring official movements. Sahara Reporters corroborated this, adding that the plot was foiled after intelligence intercepted communications, with the DIA official noting the military’s diplomatic phrasing in its statement.
The claims by Sahara Reporters’ sources are quite detailed, identifying the detained officers as being attached to the Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), with ranks ranging from Captain to Brigadier-General, mostly Northerners, and recently arrested at their homes across the country.
The report even gives names of some of the officers apprehended and alleges that one of the ringleaders is a relative to a top politician. It also claims that the military officer’s brother, who is also a military personnel of the same rank, was briefly detained but released after being cleared.
Sahara Report alleges that the main objective, according to its sources, was to overthrow Tinubu and establish a military government. It directly linked the plot to the cancellation of the Independence Day parade. However, the DHQ, through Brigadier General Tukur Gusau, Director of Defence Information, issued a statement debunking the allegations.
The military clarified that the arrested officers, numbering 16 according to Sahara Reporters, were under investigation for “indiscipline and breach of service regulations,” specifically citing failures in promotion examinations and career stagnation as the basis for their detention.
The DHQ further attributed the parade cancellation to Tinubu’s bilateral meetings and the military’s focus on anti-insurgency operations. It urged the public to disregard what it called “falsehoods circulated by purveyors of misinformation and enemies of the nation.” This official stance starkly contrasts with the media narratives, raising questions about their veracity.
Nigeria’s history includes five successful coups and several failed attempts since 1960, with the last successful coup in 1993. Under Tinubu’s administration, the focus has been on economic reforms, security challenges like Boko Haram, and internal military discipline, rather than overt political instability suggesting coup risks.
However, there has been occasional public discontent within the military, such as complaints about welfare and promotions, which provides a backdrop that could fuel speculation. No prior incidents under Tinubu have been officially linked to coup plots.
Several factors have sparked suspicions about the coup plot story. The first was the sudden cancellation of the Independence Day parade, a major national event, without a clear public explanation, which sparked initial rumors. Both Premium Times and Sahara Reporters’ claims that this was a security measure may align with historical precedents where a bomb blast disrupted the 2010 celebrations.
Another factor is the specificity of the reports, naming targets, dates, and insider informants. It lends dramatic weight, but the lack of official corroboration from the presidency or military heightens scepticism. A third factor is Nigeria’s history of military interventions and current economic hardships. These provide a plausible motive for discontent, potentially among mid-ranking officers.
However, the absence of verified arrests, named conspirators, or official confirmation suggests the story may be speculative or exaggerated. Public opinion in the country reflects a divide. Some Nigerians express scepticism, Many agree with the DHQ’s denial and view the reports as sensationalism or propaganda, possibly to distract from governance issues.
Some Political analysts say plotting a coup in Nigeria currently would be an invitation to anarchy, as none state actors, with more arms than in the 1980’s, would take advantage of such a situation. They believe the military today is deeply monitored, politically neutralised, and divided by regional and ethnic interests, that no single officer can rally enough force to seize power.
“Besides, the same political class controls the military through patronage and appointments, so there’s no incentive to overthrow a system that already takes care of them,” one commentator said.
Others, citing Nigeria’s coup-laden past and ongoing military grievances, find the allegations plausible, arguing that Premium Times and Sahara Reporters’ track records lend them some credibility. The debate has intensified online and in traditional media, with calls for transparency from the government to quell the rumours.
The lack of a unified official narrative has left the public polarised, with some accusing the media of fearmongering and others demanding an independent investigation. The alleged plot remains unverified, with the DHQ’s denial and lack of concrete evidence casting doubt on Premium Times and Sahara Reporters’ claims.
While historical context and recent events like the parade cancellation provide fertile ground for suspicion, government sources say the absence of official confirmation or further media validation suggests caution. The tension between military discipline issues and political stability under Tinubu’s leadership may continue to fuel such narratives, but without substantiation, many believe this story appears more speculative than factual, until further evidence proves otherwise.
